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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0688

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, June 10, 2018 00:36:26
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    ACUS11 KWNS 100036
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 100035
    SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-100200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0688
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0735 PM CDT Sat Jun 09 2018

    Areas affected...southeast MT...far northeast WY into far northwest
    SD and southwest ND

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 100035Z - 100200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered storms may pose a marginal
    severe threat the next few hours. Near 1-inch hail and strong wind
    gusts are possible with the strongest cells.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have developed this evening
    within moist, upslope flow along axis of strong instability.
    Effective shear has increased since earlier in the day to around
    30-40 kt, weakening with eastward extent. However, forcing for
    ascent is weak across the region as the main upper trough is well
    west of the MCD area. As such, coverage should remain isolated to
    widely scattered.

    00z RAOBs from GGW and UNR show very steep midlevel lapse rates
    across the region with favorable directional shear profiles for
    maintaining isolated cells. Winds are particularly weak from around
    700-500 mb however, and this may limit longevity of well-organized
    storms. As such, an isolated severe threat may persist for a few
    hours this evening until the boundary layer begins to stabilize with
    loss of daytime heating. Marginally severe hail and strong wind
    gusts will be possible with the strongest cells.

    ..Leitman/Hart.. 06/10/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

    LAT...LON 46440644 46710618 46930560 47000515 46930445 46640395
    46380355 45990326 45490297 45020291 44480318 44310366
    44200473 44320541 44680576 45330615 46440644



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