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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0103

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, February 13, 2019 05:22:20
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 130422
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 130421
    MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-130715-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0103
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1021 PM CST Tue Feb 12 2019

    Areas affected...Much of central into northern Maine and adjacent
    portions of northern New Hampshire

    Concerning...Heavy snow

    Valid 130421Z - 130715Z

    SUMMARY...Heavy hourly snow rates of 1-2+ inches per hour appear
    likely to continue to develop across much of central into northern
    Maine through 1-4 AM EST.

    DISCUSSION...Moderate to heavy snow appears in the process of
    developing across parts of northern New England in response to
    increasing lift within entirely sub-freezing and saturating
    thermodynamic profiles. Ascent is largely being supported by
    strengthening warm advection, downstream of significant cyclone
    which may gradually begin to occlude as it crosses the lower Great
    Lakes region. However, models suggest that large-scale ascent may
    become enhanced during the next few hours, aided by lower/mid
    tropospheric frontogenetic forcing, including through the
    mixed-phase layer supportive of large dendritic ice crystal growth.

    Into and through the 06-09Z time frame, this appears generally
    forecast to become focused across central into northern Maine (and
    adjacent portions of northern New Hampshire), where guidance
    suggests that sustained hourly snow rates in excess of 1 inch per
    hour are possible. Forecast soundings also indicate a period of
    steepening mid-level lapse rates across this region, which could
    become supportive of convection with at least shorter-lived heavier
    bursts of snowfall.

    ..Kerr.. 02/13/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...

    LAT...LON 46746908 45606666 44536741 44256927 44527128 45057202
    45787148 46747050 46746908



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