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ACUS11 KWNS 122035
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122035
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-130030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0102
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 PM CST Tue Feb 12 2019

Areas affected...northeast PA...northern NJ...central through
eastern NY...western and northern CT...MA...VT and southern NH

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation

Valid 122035Z - 130030Z

SUMMARY...A large winter storm will continue to produce mostly
freezing rain and sleet from northeast PA, northern NJ into south
central NY through early evening. Mostly moderate to heavy snow from
central through southeast NY into CT and southwest MA will
transition to sleet and freezing rain during early evening. Moderate
to heavy snow will expand northward from northeast NY and MA into VT
and NH this evening. Localized snowfall rates up to and occasionally
exceeding 1 inch per hour are possible.

DISCUSSION...Band of moderate to heavy snow from eastern NY
southeast through southern New England will continue to expand
northward into VT and NH this evening. The low-level jet has
strengthened to around 60 kt with strong veering/warm advection
profiles indicated on VWP data over eastern NY. The northward
migrating low-level jet interacting with an east-west oriented
baroclinic zone, and associated with an increase in 800-700 mb layer frontogenetic forcing, will maintain deep ascent through the
dendritic growth zone, supporting moderate to heavy snow. South of
the snow band, warm advection along the low-level jet has resulted
in northward progression of a melting layer aloft, where
precipitation type has gradually changed to a mixture of freezing
rain and sleet, especially from central PA into northern NJ. This
transition zone will continue slowly northward into the evening.

..Dial.. 02/12/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...
CTP...

LAT...LON 44877269 43387107 42217117 41677249 40817424 40337595
40547741 41287853 42747822 43297643 44797500 44877269



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