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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0687

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 09, 2018 23:31:26
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 092331
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 092330
    ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-100130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0687
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0630 PM CDT Sat Jun 09 2018

    Areas affected...eastern Iowa...southwestern Wisconsin...and into
    northwestern Illinois

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 165...

    Valid 092330Z - 100130Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 165 continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe/isolated tornado risk continues across parts of
    northeast Iowa, with severe potential to expand southeastward with
    time. A downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows storms over northeast Iowa now
    appearing to be in the beginning stages of upscale/linear growth,
    which should continue over the next few hours. With a warm front --
    and associated axis of instability -- lying west-northwest to
    east-southeast into northern Illinois, and a southwesterly low-level
    jet forecast to increase over the next several hours, a compact, southeastward-moving MCS is expected to evolve with time.

    With a small zone of moderately strong westerly flow in the 700 to
    500 mb layer forecast to spread across Iowa and eventually into
    northern Illinois, fast-moving convection is expected. As such, the
    severe risk is likely to trend gradually toward primarily damaging
    winds, with this risk possibly requiring downstream Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch issuance in the next 1-2 hours.

    ..Goss.. 06/09/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

    LAT...LON 42479356 42989324 43459196 43269087 42679002 41918862
    40758862 40789034 41389186 42479356



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