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ACUS11 KWNS 121241
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121240
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-121515-

Mesoscale Discussion 0099
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 AM CST Tue Feb 12 2019

Areas affected...Portions of far southeastern LA...eastern/southern
MS...and western/central AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 121240Z - 121515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to damaging winds and perhaps a brief
tornado may occur this morning with a line of thunderstorms moving
eastward. Watch issuance remains unlikely in the short term.

DISCUSSION...A line of low-topped convection has recently
consolidated across parts of eastern MS and far southeastern LA
ahead of a surface cold front. Strong low-level shear is present
over this region, as a 40-50 kt southwesterly low-level jet noted on
the 12Z sounding from LIX is forecast to move slowly eastward this
morning. 0-1 km shear around 30 kt has been noted on recent VWPs
from the KLIX radar, and effective SRH around 250-335 m2/s2 should
support some low-level rotation with the strongest updrafts embedded
within the line. The main limiting factors which will probably
preclude a greater severe risk are weak instability and generally
modest low-level moisture ahead of the line of storms. Surface
dewpoints remain in the low to mid 60s across this region as of 12Z,
with upper 60s dewpoints confined to the southern LA Coast and
vicinity. Widespread cloudiness will tend to limit diurnal heating,
and low-level lapse rates will likewise struggle to steepen this
morning across western/central AL. Accordingly, MLCAPE is expected
to remain at or below 500 J/kg with poor mid-level lapse rates
present across this region. Still, an isolated strong to damaging
wind gust could occur with any downdraft along/ahead of the line. A
brief tornado also cannot be ruled out given the strong low-level
shear. Regardless, weak instability should keep the overall severe
threat marginal, and watch issuance remains unlikely at this time.

..Gleason/Edwards.. 02/12/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 30868828 30418884 30188952 30408994 30968975 31198952
31448936 32018928 32658905 33248849 33618762 33548727
33178707 31188793 30868828



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