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ACUS11 KWNS 120741
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120740
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-121345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0097
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 AM CST Tue Feb 12 2019

Areas affected...Portions of northern IN...northwestern OH...and
southern Lower MI

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation

Valid 120740Z - 121345Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain rates up to 0.05 to 0.10 inch per hour
ongoing across northern IN and northwestern OH should become common
across parts of southern Lower MI through the morning. A wintry mix
of snow, sleet, and freezing rain will be possible on the northern
extent of the precipitation.

DISCUSSION...A synoptic-scale upper trough will continue moving
northeastward across the Upper Midwest this morning. Strong warm air
advection associated with a east-southeasterly low-level jet is
supporting a broad precipitation shield across parts of the Upper
Midwest into the lower Great Lakes as of 0730Z. Light to moderate
freezing rain is already occurring across parts of northern IN and
northwestern OH, and these areas will very likely experience a
gradual south-to-north transition from freezing rain to rain over
the next few hours as surface temperatures slowly climb above
freezing.

As the axis of the low-level jet shifts northeastward in tandem with
the overall upper trough, a weak warm nose centered around 850 mb
should also develop slowly northward across southern Lower MI
through 13Z. Freezing rain rates of 0.05 to 0.10 inch per hour may
become common where surface temperatures remain below 30F. This
seems most likely in southern Lower MI, where wetbulb cooling of a
drier low-level airmass should at least partially offset latent heat
release as melted hydrometeors refreeze at the surface. Slightly
cooler low-level temperatures on the northern extent of the
precipitation shield suggest that a mix of snow and sleet may be
more common.

..Gleason.. 02/12/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON 41558670 41768699 42168649 42558628 42858628 43298626
43488566 43318403 43078281 42838243 42538264 42458282
41498339 41228408 41238540 41558670



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