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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0684

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 09, 2018 20:51:25
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 092051
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 092050
    SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-092315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0684
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0350 PM CDT Sat Jun 09 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of northeastern WY...southeastern MT...and
    western SD

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 092050Z - 092315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A very isolated large hail and strong/gusty wind threat
    may exist with thunderstorms developing eastward through this
    evening. A watch is not anticipated due to the marginal severe risk.

    DISCUSSION...Orographic lift along the Bighorn and Laramie Mountains
    along with ascent associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough
    over WY are encouraging isolated convection across northeastern WY
    per recent visible satellite and radar imagery. A moist low-level
    airmass characterized by upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints is present
    across northeastern WY and western SD. Strong surface heating and
    steep mid-level lapse rates combined with this moisture are
    resulting in MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg. The main limiting factor that
    will likely preclude a greater severe risk is weak mid-level winds,
    which should generally remain at or below 35 kt. Still, the moderate
    to strong instability and a veering wind profile may support
    occasional updraft organization. Very isolated instances of large
    hail and strong/gusty winds will be possible, but watch issuance is
    not expected.

    ..Gleason/Grams.. 06/09/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

    LAT...LON 43650620 44510663 45390591 45610453 45390373 45070320
    43910281 43150340 42930436 42750535 43070597 43650620



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