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ACUS11 KWNS 100715
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100715
ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-101215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0093
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 AM CST Sun Feb 10 2019

Areas affected...far north-central AR...southern and southeast
MO...southern IL...far western KY

Concerning...Freezing rain

Valid 100715Z - 101215Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain rates 0.05 inches per 3 hours are possible
through 6am CST.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a broken precipitation shield over
AR into northern MS and western TN as of 1am CST. Surface analysis
indicates temperatures at or below 32 degrees F are located over
far northern AR northeastward to the MS/OH River confluence.
Forecast soundings show an above freezing layer around 850mb, which
was observed on the 6pm Little Rock raob, atop a shallow
near-surface layer below freezing and freezing rain is the expected precipitation type. Low-level warm air advection is associated with
the expanding precipitation shield over the lower MS Valley and it
is forecast to shift gradually north and east during the overnight
into the early morning. Model guidance suggests precipitation will
generally remain light but rates around 0.05 inches per 3 hours are
possible.

..Smith.. 02/10/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON 36549304 37489218 38689025 38018819 36978859 36589030
35829280 36549304



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