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ACUS11 KWNS 091906
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091906
MTZ000-IDZ000-092100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0683
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 PM CDT Sat Jun 09 2018

Areas affected...Portions of western MT

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 091906Z - 092100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...An increasing threat for large hail and damaging winds
will likely require the issuance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in
the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Large-scale ascent preceding a strong upper trough over
the Pacific Northwest is encouraging cumulus development over the
Bitterroot Mountains of ID and southwestern MT. The airmass ahead of
a cold front across western MT will continue to destabilize this
afternoon, and several locations across the northern High Plains
have warmed into the mid 80s to around 90 as of 19Z. Although
low-level moisture remains somewhat limited, steep mid-level lapse
rates around 7-8 C/km and strong diurnal heating will support MLCAPE
around 500-1000 J/kg this afternoon. Strengthening, mostly
uni-directional low and mid-level south-southwesterly winds
associated with the approaching upper trough are resulting in 40-60+
kt of effective bulk shear. Supercells are expected to be the
initial storm mode, with a threat for both large hail and damaging
winds. Some upscale growth into a small cluster will be possible as thunderstorms move quickly northward into Canada late this afternoon
and early evening. Steep low-level lapse rates across the lower
elevations should foster efficient downdraft accelerations, and
damaging winds may become the primary threat with time. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued within the next couple of
hours to address this threat.

..Gleason/Grams.. 06/09/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...

LAT...LON 46161446 46961473 49051464 49051033 47601047 46751093
46021241 45971343 45971410 46161446



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