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ACUS11 KWNS 131742
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131741
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-131945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0238
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Areas affected...Northeast TX...Northwest LA...Central and Southern
AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 131741Z - 131945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorm activity over southeast OK and
northeast TX may become rooted in the boundary layer by mid
afternoon. This will increase the risk of intense storms capable of
tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. A tornado watch will be
needed later today.

DISCUSSION...Radar/satellite imagery shows a band of elevated
convection extending from Pushmataha/Choctaw counties OK southward
into Kaufman/Navarro counties TX. Some increase in intensity has
been noted in the past hour, although activity remains sub-severe.
A substantial capping inversion was in place over this region at
12z, but the 18z FWD/LZK soundings indicate rapid cooling at the
base of the EML and a diminishing cap. Given current trends, the
thunderstorm activity may become surface-based in the next couple of
hours.

Strong low-level wind fields will remain in place ahead of the
convection, and may increase through early evening. Local VAD
profiles already show 0-3 km SRH values of 300-400 m2/s2 with
forecast soundings suggesting values over 500 m2/s2 this evening.
Assuming activity can remain semi-discrete, a few intense supercells
are likely to evolve. Parameters appear favorable for the risk of
strong tornadoes, along with large hail and damaging winds. PDS
wording is being considered in the tornado watch for this region.

..Hart.. 04/13/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

LAT...LON 34189488 35269346 35369141 33279218 31419497 32949541
34189488



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ACUS11 KWNS 250648
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250647
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-250815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0238
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019

Areas affected...Parts of northeast Texas...northwest Louisiana and
adjacent southern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 250647Z - 250815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Some risk for severe hail and wind may linger in stronger
storms for another hour or two, mainly across the Interstate 20
corridor of northeast Texas, before likely diminishing by 4-5 AM
CDT. An additional severe weather watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...The most vigorous thunderstorm development is now
generally focused west-northwest through north/northeast of Tyler
TX, within a remnant axis of stronger, but waning boundary layer destabilization associated with yesterday's daytime heating, and a
return flow of Gulf moisture that persists. This now appears to be
just ahead of a southward advancing surface cold front, which may
gradually tend to undercut the stronger convection and associated
unstable boundary layer air through 09-10z, as it progresses across
the Interstate 20 corridor. As this occurs, storm intensities are
expected to diminish. Until then, some risk for severe hail and
gusty surface winds may remain possible in isolated stronger storms
for another hour or two.

..Kerr.. 03/25/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...

LAT...LON 32369573 32539485 32799390 33039328 32919297 32209356
31919510 32089642 32369573



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