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ACUS11 KWNS 071312
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071311
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-071415-

Mesoscale Discussion 0089
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0711 AM CST Thu Feb 07 2019

Areas affected...central and northeast AR...far western
TN...southeast MO...western KY...southern IL...far southwest IN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 4...

Valid 071311Z - 071415Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 4 continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph) and perhaps a brief/weak
tornado (75-110 mph) are possible this morning as a squall line
moves east towards the MS River. A replacement of severe
thunderstorm watch 4 over north-central AR combined with including
areas farther east and northeast is being considered.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a squall line from southwest AR
northeast to the middle part of the AR/MO border. Surface
observations downstream of the squall line indicate temperatures
range from near 70 degrees F in central AR to the lower 60s near the
MS/OH River confluence. Strong low-level moisture transport is
occurring over the MS Valley and dewpoints range from the middle 60s
near I-40 to the lower 60s north in western KY. The 12z LZK raob
showed 900 J/kg MLCAPE with a very strong and veering low-level wind
profile beneath a 125-kt upper speed max. Given the sufficient
buoyancy and the very strong shear profile, it appears a risk for
wind damage and perhaps a tornado will continue through the morning
with intensification of the squall line in the form of bowing
segments becoming increasingly probable. Some risk for a tornado
(max wind speed 75-110 mph based on experimental guidance) may
accompany the strongest/longer-lived mesovortices.

..Smith/Grams.. 02/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON 35059272 36589117 38508884 38298780 37948719 36778844
35548958 34919011 34339179 34389228 35059272



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