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ACUS11 KWNS 070936
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070936
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-071030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0086
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 AM CST Thu Feb 07 2019

Areas affected...northeast TX...southeast OK...southwest AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 070936Z - 071030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An additional severe thunderstorm watch located over
northeast TX into southeast OK, and southwest AR is not currently
anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a southwest-northeast oriented
squall line from north-central TX northeast through far eastern OK.
The airmass over southeast OK/northeast TX is moist/unstable with
surface temperatures near 70 degrees F and dewpoints in the middle
60s. Strong deep-layer shear vectors oriented largely parallel to
the front, which is serving as the focus for thunderstorm
development, will tend to limit the overall potential for a more
widespread risk for severe gusts due to a setup not optimal for
horizontal momentum transport. Nonetheless, will continue to
monitor trends in the intensity of the intensifying squall line over
north TX as it moves towards the TX/OK/AR tri-state vicinity.

..Smith/Grams.. 02/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 34179634 33029743 32989515 33559389 34159346 34709372
34509489 35399495 35009571 34179634



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