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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0084

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, February 07, 2019 07:51:11
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    ACUS11 KWNS 070651
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 070650
    MOZ000-070745-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0084
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1250 AM CST Thu Feb 07 2019

    Areas affected...south-central into southeast MO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 070650Z - 070745Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A localized damaging gust threat (50-60 mph) may continue
    across south-central into southeast MO during the next hour.

    DISCUSSION...KSGF radar imagery shows a north-south squall line
    moving quickly east across southern MO as of 1250am CST. Surface
    analysis indicates a stationary front draped east across southern MO
    through the OH/MS River confluence. Relatively cool surface
    conditions reside east of the squall line and range from the mid 40s
    north to the upper 50s south. Forecast soundings indicate no
    surface-based CAPE exists downstream of the squall line --in
    agreement with objective analysis data. It appears 62-64 deg F
    dewpoints are necessary for surface-based CAPE. Given the elevated
    character of the squall line with embedded nonsupercellular cores
    previously showing brief/weak mid-level rotation that has since
    dissipated, the expectation for the remaining severe risk is for
    localized wind damage (50-60 mph gusts) as the maximum hazard.

    ..Smith/Grams.. 02/07/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

    LAT...LON 37469235 37689153 37629082 37299063 37069070 36859103
    36719261 37469235



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