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ACUS11 KWNS 070333
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070333
IAZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-070930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0081
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0933 PM CST Wed Feb 06 2019

Areas affected...Portions of northern Missouri and southern Iowa

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation

Valid 070333Z - 070930Z

SUMMARY...Winter mixed precipitation is expected to develop across
northern Missouri and southern Iowa tonight. Heavy freezing rain and
sleet are likely at times.

DISCUSSION...Warm-air advection and isentropic lifting over a cold
air mass is occurring as a low-level jet strengthens over the Plains
and Mid Mississippi/Lower Missouri Valleys. An embedded shortwave
trough is helping to initiate some of the convection currently
before the larger-scale forcing spreads eastward with the
upper-level trough moving out over the Plains tonight. This could
result in training/multiple rounds of winter mixed precipitation for
northern portions of Missouri (see MCD 079). CG lightning is also
likely given the presence/potential for mixed-phase clouds and
MUCAPE of 250-1000+ J/kg as lapse rates steepen in response to
cold-air advection aloft. With the convective potential, heavy
freezing rain and sleet showers are likely tonight/overnight. Ice
accumulation will occur across much of the MCD area and
precipitation should continue into the morning.

..Nauslar/Edwards.. 02/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...

LAT...LON 38559295 38999321 39299338 39699398 39919450 39979494
39979519 40159556 40469567 40839542 41289467 41679385
42029257 42109166 41999126 41819082 41529065 41439066
40709102 40369128 39969148 39629169 39259195 39059205
38849225 38669251 38579277 38559295



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