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ACUS11 KWNS 062142
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062141
ARZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-062345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0076
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CST Wed Feb 06 2019

Areas affected...southeast Oklahoma...extreme northeast Texas
through central Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 062141Z - 062345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Some increase in thunderstorm intensity and organization
might occur during the next couple hours. Primary threats appear to
be isolated damaging wind hail, but a tornado or two cannot be ruled
out. Overall threat appears somewhat conditional in the near term,
so a WW issuance will ultimately depend on convective trends.

DISCUSSION...As of mid afternoon a quasi-stationary front extends
from southeast OK through northwest AR into southeast MO. South of
the front, an outflow boundary extends from the AR/TN border
westward through central AR. South of these boundaries a few cloud
breaks have resulted in modest destabilization of the warm sector
with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. This destabilization process has resulted
in some increase in intensity of thunderstorms from southeast OK
into central AR. Wind profiles show ample (60+ kt) vertical shear
through a deep layer, however, size of low-level hodographs has been
limited so far by veered low-level winds. This environment may
support a few organized structures including isolated supercells and
bowing segments with main threats being locally damaging wind gusts
and hail. However, primary limiting factors appear to be weak
forcing aloft and a tendency for a capping inversion to build as
warmer temperatures in the 850-700 mb layer advect northeast.

..Dial/Guyer.. 02/06/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

LAT...LON 34439525 35009404 35369320 35309119 35539015 34729054
34259173 34209288 33549444 33869544 34439525



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