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ACUS11 KWNS 091735
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091734
NJZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-092000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0681
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Sat Jun 09 2018

Areas affected...Portions of WV...VA...MD...DC...DE...and far
southern NJ

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 091734Z - 092000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for strong to locally damaging winds
and perhaps marginally severe hail will continue through the
afternoon. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently formed across part of the
Delmarva Peninsula in the vicinity of a stalled surface front. Even
through large-scale forcing for ascent will remain nebulous,
additional thunderstorms should form this afternoon along/south of
the front and perhaps along the Blue Ridge/Appalachian Mountains due
to ample diurnal heating and weak low-level convergence. A moist
airmass was sampled by the 12Z soundings from IAD and WAL, and
MLCAPE has generally increased into the 1000-1500 J/kg range across
the warm sector. Both low and mid-level flow remain modest, with
recent VWP estimates from KLWX showing no more than around 30 kt of
westerly flow around 5-6 km AGL. Similar values of effective bulk
shear should support occasional updraft organization, and one or
more loosely organized clusters of thunderstorms may develop across
the region later this afternoon. Isolated strong to locally damaging
winds appears to be the main threat with these thunderstorms, with a
couple cells over DE recently displaying downburst signatures per
KDOX radar. Marginally severe hail may also be possible. The lack of
even stronger mid-level winds will likely keep the overall severe
threat too isolated/marginal to warrant watch issuance.

..Gleason/Grams.. 06/09/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON 38177876 38447924 39227881 39627823 39637743 39667633
39377442 39127462 38797488 38407495 37927525 37737541
37497573 37697706 37927829 38177876



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