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ACUS11 KWNS 131739
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131739
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-131945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0237
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Areas affected...north central Texas through eastern
Oklahoma...southeast Kansas...southwest Missouri and northwest
Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 131739Z - 131945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to develop early to mid
afternoon from north central Texas through east Oklahoma and
southeast Kansas posing a risk for very large hail, damaging wind
and a few tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible imagery shows boundary-layer cumulus
increasing along sharpening dryline and dryline/cold front merger
from southeast KS through central OK and north central TX. Cloud
breaks and low-level theta-e advection is promoting destabilization,
and objective analysis shows a corridor of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE in
warm sector. The atmosphere still appears capped by an inversion
located around 800 mb associated with warm air at the base of the
elevated mixed layer. However deep ascent with a lead shortwave
trough continues to act on this layer, and should eventually erode
the inversion such that surface-based storms will initiate along the
dryline during the next couple hours. The 18Z Fort Worth RAOB showed substantial cooling in the capping layer compared to the 12Z. While
deep-layer shear is very strong (50-55 kt), VWP data continues to
indicate veer-back-veer characteristics, possibly due to the effects
of the lead shortwave trough. Low-level hodographs are initially
large with current 0-1 km storm relative helicity around 250+ m2/s2.
However, some decrease in 0-1 km hodograph size should occur as the
low-level jet shifts east. Nevertheless, the overall environment is
supportive of supercells and bowing segments capable of very large
hail, damaging wind and a few tornadoes this afternoon.

..Dial/Hart.. 04/13/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 31409781 33889723 36869647 37949590 37849432 36579403
33859509 31519622 31409781



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ACUS11 KWNS 250312
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250311
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-250515-

Mesoscale Discussion 0237
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1011 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

Areas affected...northeast Texas...southwest Arkansas...far
southeast Oklahoma into northwest Louisiana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 33...

Valid 250311Z - 250515Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 33
continues.

SUMMARY...Large hail remains possible mainly over southern parts of
the watch from northeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex.

DISCUSSION...Storm trends have been down recently with the loss of
heating, but widely-scattered hail cores remain. The most unstable
air currently resides over TX, with southwesterly flow aloft feeding
somewhat elevated storms into AR where temperatures are cooler.

Given the influence of a low-amplitude shortwave trough approaching
the area, some redevelopment is expected through about 09Z. Cells
were beginning to increase again near the Red River as of 03Z, north
of the wind shift. This boundary and/or outflows from existing
storms will favor redevelopment. Wind profiles will continue to
favor east-southeastward moving cells capable of hail, and the
severe threat may eventually spread into areas just south and east
of the current watch.

..Jewell.. 03/25/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

LAT...LON 33069332 32569427 32299526 32299638 32389701 32629721
32949726 33239631 33879552 34709415 34939274 34539230
34069237 33529267 33069332



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