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ACUS11 KWNS 060254
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060254
MIZ000-060900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0073
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0854 PM CST Tue Feb 05 2019

Areas affected...Central/southern Michigan

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation

Valid 060254Z - 060900Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain and sleet will continue to spread eastward
across southern/central Michigan tonight with snow mixing in along
northern portions of the MCD in central Michigan.

DISCUSSION...A shortwave upper-level trough continues to track
northeast over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes this evening
spreading ascent across the region. Bright banding and intermixed
correlation coefficient values indicate freezing rain and sleet are
developing across northern Illinois/southeast Wisconsin/southern
Lake Michigan amid warm air advection and isentropic lift associated
with this shortwave trough. Lift is currently strongest over
southern Lake Michigan/vicinity and this should spread
east-northeast across central Michigan in the coming hours.

Precipitation rates of 0.05-0.25" are expected for winter mixed
precipitation and snow may mix in, but the warm nose should stay in
place overnight across much of southern/central Michigan with warm
air advection continuing between 925 mb and 700 mb. Surface
temperatures across portions of far southern Michigan/far northern
Indiana are at/just above freezing, but wet bulbing should lower
these temperatures to at/below freezing. Convective elements may
appear tonight with mid-level lapse rates steepening as the colder
air aloft arrives with the core of the shortwave trough. As a
result, CG lightning is possible across southern Michigan/northern
Indiana.

..Nauslar/Edwards.. 02/06/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON 42618702 43448691 43748669 43958624 44148502 44178368
44138307 43968274 43328247 42718253 41958326 41818354
41788422 41788490 41798565 41788616 41848662 42028694
42438704 42618702



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