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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0072

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, February 06, 2019 02:33:33
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 060133
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 060132
    OKZ000-TXZ000-060400-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0072
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0732 PM CST Tue Feb 05 2019

    Areas affected...North Texas...Southeast Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 060132Z - 060400Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A threat for hail will exist with the stronger updrafts
    that develop across north Texas and southeast Oklahoma this evening.
    The severe threat will be too isolated for weather watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a cold front moving
    southward through southern and eastern Oklahoma. A moist airmass is
    present to the south of the front with surface dewpoints in the
    lower 60s F across north Texas. This is contributing to a pocket of
    instability where the RAP has MLCAPE values of around 500 J/kg.
    Thunderstorms have recently developed near the instability maxima
    where the cap has weakened and large-scale ascent is likely
    increasing due to an approaching shortwave trough. The Fort Worth
    00Z sounding shows a steep lapse rate from 800 to 600 mb but has
    relatively warmer air near and above 500 mb. This thermodynamic
    profile along with 0-6 km shear of 60-65 kt should be enough for
    hail to be associated with the stronger updrafts. Hail will be
    especially possible with storms that rotate such as the right and
    left split that is currently in Jack County, Texas.

    ..Broyles/Edwards.. 02/06/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 34199495 34739527 34819726 34429824 33879849 33459854
    32839834 32609798 32669726 33119630 33669523 34199495



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