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ACUS11 KWNS 091610
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091609
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-091815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0680
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 AM CDT Sat Jun 09 2018

Areas affected...East-central MO...Central/southwest
IL...West-central IN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 091609Z - 091815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible during the next
several hours. Isolated and marginal nature of the severe threat is
expected to preclude the need for a watch.

DISCUSSION...Well-defined outflow boundary extends from
north-central IN southwestward into west-central IN and across
central IL. Airmass immediately ahead of this boundary is warm and
moist with surface temperatures already in the upper 80s/low 90s and
dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. Lapse rates are rather weak,
tempering overall instability, but enough instability exists for
continued storm development along the southeastward progressing
outflow boundary. Vertical shear is very weak (i.e. 0-6 km bulk
shear less than 20 kt) with little to no storm organization expected
as a result. Even so, continued thunderstorm development within this
moist environment will likely result in storm mergers and brief
updraft intensification. Resulting water-loading could support a few
stronger gusts capable of damaging wind.

Farther south (across southwest IL and east-central MO), outflow
from the ongoing cluster continues to push northward/northeastward
into the downstream warm, moist, and unstable airmass. Like areas
farther north, predominately unorganized storms are anticipated with
any severe threat resulting from water-loaded downbursts.

..Mosier/Grams.. 06/09/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON 40098731 39848866 39478981 39099070 38319089 37829067
37908998 38128932 38368881 38698813 39678616 40268653
40098731



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