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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0063

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, January 31, 2019 16:53:54
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 311553
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 311553
    NYZ000-312200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0063
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0953 AM CST Thu Jan 31 2019

    Areas affected...Lee of Lake Ontario in northwest NY

    Concerning...Heavy snow

    Valid 311553Z - 312200Z

    SUMMARY...A heavy lake effect snow band will shift northward,
    bringing rapidly deteriorating conditions to parts of central
    Jefferson and northern Lewis counties in northwest NY. Snowfall
    rates of 2-4 inches per hour will be possible at times.

    DISCUSSION...Recent radar loop from KTYX has shown a northward shift
    in the heavy lake effect snow band impacting northern Oswego,
    southern Jefferson and western Lewis counties. Latest hi-res
    guidance from the HRRR, along with the 4km NAM and RAP guidance
    suggest this northward shift may continue, bringing the heavy snow
    band into central Jefferson and northern Lewis counties. This would
    bring quickly deteriorating conditions from Sackets Harbor to
    Watertown and Great Bend in Jefferson County, eastward into northern
    Lewis County. Snowfall rates up to 2-4 inches per hour will remain
    possible with this band the next several hours. Additionally, gusty
    winds likely will continue through the afternoon, further
    exacerbating hazardous conditions with blowing and drifting snow and near-whiteout conditions.

    Some minor north to south wobbles in the band may occur into the
    evening as low level convergence varies as the surface low over
    northern Ontario slowly begins to shift east/northeast later
    today/tonight and stronger surface high pressure builds into the
    Mid-Atlantic and southwestern New England.

    ..Leitman.. 01/31/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...

    LAT...LON 43997657 44137637 44157596 44077539 43757514 43487533
    43497575 43517621 43617648 43807656 43997657



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