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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0678

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 09, 2018 06:16:54
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    ACUS11 KWNS 090616
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 090616
    NEZ000-090745-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0678
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0116 AM CDT Sat Jun 09 2018

    Areas affected...South central and southeast NE

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 090616Z - 090745Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Threat for isolated damaging winds may persist through
    08-09z, but the need for an additional severe thunderstorm watch is
    unclear.

    DISCUSSION...Recent surface observations and Broken Bow and Ord NE
    confirm 51-55 kt outflow gusts with the southern portion of the MCS
    moving southeastward across southeast SD and central/northeast NE.
    Low-level inflow into the convective system will be strongest for
    the next few hours across south central/southeast NE in association
    with a 30 kt southerly low-level jet (which will veer gradually to southwesterly later this morning), which coincides with the corridor
    or richest low-level moisture, largest buoyancy, and relatively
    weaker convective inhibition. The cap will eventually take a toll
    on the convective system, though the 40-50 kt rear inflow signature
    noted in the North Platte VWP suggests that lift along the gust
    front will remain sufficient for additional storm development just
    over the cold pool for a few more hours. This situation appears to
    be on the margins for an additional severe thunderstorm watch from
    south central into east central and southeast NE, though the
    convection will continue to be monitored closely for any signs of intensification beyond that which has already been observed.

    ..Thompson.. 06/09/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

    LAT...LON 40029752 40039895 40319988 41009984 41189938 41549826
    42059745 42279712 42079641 41499616 40859615 40459639
    40029752



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