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ACUS11 KWNS 090451
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090451
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-090615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0677
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CDT Fri Jun 08 2018

Areas affected...Southeastern South Dakota...central/eastern
Nebraska and adjacent western Iowa

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 164...

Valid 090451Z - 090615Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 164
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong wind gusts approaching severe limits remain
possible with thunderstorm activity overspreading the region,
particularly across northeastern Nebraska, into the 1-3 AM time
frame. A new watch is not currently anticipated, but trends will
continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...The strong and deep convectively generated surface cold
pool continues to advance southeastward through the Sand Hills of
Nebraska and mid Missouri Valley. Forward motion has been up to
30-35 kt across the mid Missouri Valley, where shear/low-level
convergence appears maximized in closer proximity to the mesoscale
convective vortex, which has evolved on the northern flank of the
convective system. Outflow has surged out ahead of stronger
convection on the southern flank, across north central Nebraska.

Even on the northern flank, lightning and radar data suggest
weakening trends to convection may be underway. Given the lack of a
stronger nocturnal low-level jet, and the presence of substantive
mid-level inhibition associated with elevated mixed layer air, these
general trends may continue into the 06-08Z time frame. However,
this may be slowest to proceed within a corridor near/southwest of
the Missouri River, across northeastern Nebraska, roughly along the
stronger mid-level thermal gradient/northeast periphery of stronger
mid-level capping.

..Kerr.. 06/09/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON 43979771 43639705 43419652 42799611 42179627 41229746
40480010 41000130 41860168 42500173 42540092 43019926
43599881 43849864 43979771



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