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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0060

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, January 29, 2019 23:46:42
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 292246
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 292246
    MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-300245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0060
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0446 PM CST Tue Jan 29 2019

    Areas affected...Eastern Pennsylvania...southern New York...far
    western Massachusetts...far southern Vermont

    Concerning...Heavy snow

    Valid 292246Z - 300245Z

    SUMMARY...The potential for 1"+ hourly snow rates will increase in a
    focused corridor across the discussion area over the next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...Lift associated with an approaching shortwave trough is maintaining a persistent corridor of precipitation within a warm
    conveyor oriented from the Mid-Atlantic into New York state, with
    several recent observations indicating moderate to heavy snow and
    1/4 to 1/2 mile visibilities currently. Models (particularly the
    12Z HREF) have handled this axis of precipitation fairly well, and
    suggest that precipitation rates should continue to increase through
    02Z - primarily in response to increased lift associated with the
    approaching shortwave trough axis. Profiles/PFCs suggest that the
    bulk of this precipitation will fall as moderate to heavy snow
    during that time as surface temperatures hover near/below freezing. Precipitation rates will increase to about 1" per hour at times
    (locally higher) through 02Z. These rates should lessen afterward
    as the shortwave trough axis (and associated synoptic lift) weakens
    and warm conveyor shifts eastward.

    ..Cook.. 01/29/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

    LAT...LON 42587500 42907439 43157357 43007292 42437296 41897342
    41497415 41057498 40567560 40607608 41687591 42587500



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