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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0057

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, January 28, 2019 02:05:07
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 280105
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 280104
    WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-280700-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0057
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0704 PM CST Sun Jan 27 2019

    Areas affected...east-central and southeast MN...far northeast
    IA...far northern IL...southern two-thirds of WI

    Concerning...Heavy snow

    Valid 280104Z - 280700Z

    SUMMARY...Snowfall rates are forecast to generally range 1.0-1.5
    inches per hour and begin near Minneapolis/Saint Paul between 8-10pm
    CST. The heavy snowfall rates will spread downstream across
    central/southern WI later this evening and adjacent portions of
    IA/IL.

    DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid-level shortwave
    trough over the northern Great Plains and this feature is forecast
    to move southeast and reach the WI/MN/IA vicinity by early Monday
    morning. Strong isentropic ascent has led to moderate to
    intermittent heavy snow over eastern SD and southwest MN early this
    evening. The 00 UTC Minneapolis raob displayed a nearly saturated
    troposphere above 900 mb. The layer between the surface and 900 mb
    has since saturated and snow has begun in the Twin Cities. Farther
    east, the Green Bay raob was noticeably colder and drier but the
    profile will gradually moisten and warm in the surface to 500 mb
    layer this evening and support eventual snow. The moistening of the
    profile, relatively high snow to liquid equivalent ratios, and
    strengthening forcing for ascent will combine to favor hourly
    snowfall rates 1.0-1.5 inches per hour beginning this evening near
    the MS river and towards midnight CST closer to Lake Michigan.

    ..Smith.. 01/28/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...

    LAT...LON 43189207 42368957 42478782 44418784 45109035 45519305
    44669391 43189207



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