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ACUS11 KWNS 251519
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251519
NYZ000-PAZ000-252015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0053
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0919 AM CST Fri Jan 25 2019

Areas affected...portions of western and northern New York

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 251519Z - 252015Z

SUMMARY...Lake Effect snow bands will bring periods of heavy snow
and reduced visibility today across parts of western and northern
NY. Snowfall rates around 1 inch per hour are possible and may
extend downstream into parts of central and northern.

DISCUSSION...West-southwest surface to 850mb flow is noted in
surface observations as well as 12z regional RAOBs and 88-D VWP
data. This has resulted in two lake effect snow bands stretching
across parts of western and northern NY. Heavy snow with rates
around 1 inch per hour has been reported this morning, with heavy to
moderate snow stretching well downstream of the immediate lake shore
areas. In fact, 1 inch per hour rates were reported in Madison
County around 14z. Westerly flow rapidly increases from around 10-20
kt at the surface to near 40 kt around 1 km. Favorable orientation
across the lakes and strong low level flow should allow these snow
bands to continue through the day and persist well downstream toward
the western Adirondacks. It is possible that closer to Lake Ontario
and Lake Erie that snowfall rates may even exceed 1 inch per hour at
times.

Slight shifts to the north or south of low level winds may result in
some small shifts in the heaviest snow bands, but the current
location of the two bands impacting the MCD area should remain
fairly steady-state through the day. As a result, anyone traveling
north-south across western into central/northern NY could see rapid
changes in snow intensity and visibility. In addition to these heavy
lake effect bands, the surface pressure gradient is quite strong
across the region and surface winds around 15-25 mph with some
higher gusts will be possible for much of the day. Conditions are
not expected to improve until later tonight.

..Leitman.. 01/25/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CLE...

LAT...LON 43247917 43787798 44247642 44397576 44397514 44337458
44187430 43807405 43427387 43197383 43097406 43037476
42967573 42927674 42547806 42477836 42107944 42127969
42397987 43247917



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