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ACUS11 KWNS 021833
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021833
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-022030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0625
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 PM CDT Sat Jun 02 2018

Areas affected...a large portion of Arkansas and into portions of
adjacent eastern Oklahoma and southern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 021833Z - 022030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Severe risk is expected to gradually increase this
afternoon in conjunction with afternoon heating. A severe weather
watch my be required in time.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a weak/rather low-topped band
of convection along what appears to be a pre-frontal wind-shift
line, from south central Missouri southwest into eastern Oklahoma to
the south of stabilized air over central Missouri as a result of
overnight convection. Meanwhile, the airmass ahead of this current
convective activity continues to heat/destabilize, and is nearing
convective temperatures suggested by morning RAOBs, that is
necessary to overcome substantial 700 mb capping.

Above the cap, steep lapse rates were observed -- sufficient to
support moderate to high surface-based CAPE values. Though
deep-layer ascent appears to be lacking across the area, degree of
instability and the eroding cap should become sufficient to support
an eventual convective increase. Modest but sufficient shear -- per
the degree of CAPE -- suggests risk for some eventual
organization/possible upscale growth, which is hinted at in various
CAM runs showing various iterations of a linear/bowing segment
eventually evolving. While timing remains somewhat uncertain, risk
may increase over the next few hours to the degree that WW issuance
will need to be considered.

..Goss/Guyer.. 06/02/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON 33909392 34359473 34769489 36679300 37169213 36929090
36479010 35629009 34139134 33909392



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