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ACUS11 KWNS 240219
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240218
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-240415-

Mesoscale Discussion 0050
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0818 PM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

Areas affected...Portions of the FL Panhandle...far southeastern
AL...and far southwestern GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 240218Z - 240415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A semi-organized line of thunderstorms will continue to
pose an isolated strong to damaging wind threat for the next couple
of hours before weakening as it moves eastward this evening. Watch
issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A wind gust to 50 kt was observed at KLOR in
southeastern AL at 0118Z as a line of thunderstorms moved through,
with other surface observations showing wind gusts of generally
30-45 kt across far southeastern AL and the western FL Panhandle. A
couple reports of tree damage have also been received across this
region. 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear will support continued
storm organization in the short term. But, instability wanes quickly
with eastward extent in the FL Panhandle and far southwestern GA as
surface dewpoints likewise decrease from the mid 60s to upper 50s.
The 00Z sounding from TLH showed an inversion around 620 mb and very
minimal instability, which will likely induce weakening of the
ongoing line of thunderstorms as they move eastward through the
remainder of the evening. Still, at least some potential for an
isolated strong to damaging wind gust should persist for the next
couple of hours, particularly near the coast in the FL Panhandle
where instability, although weak, is slightly greater than locations
farther inland. A brief, line-embedded tornado can also not be
completely ruled out given the very strong low-level shear noted on
the KEVX VWP.

..Gleason/Edwards.. 01/24/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

LAT...LON 30118574 30618564 31218544 31898495 31888449 31268419
29908431 29768448 29598487 29578515 29698539 29848540
30118574



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