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ACUS11 KWNS 231355
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231354
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-231600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0047
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 AM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

Areas affected...Southeast LA and Southern portions of MS/AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 231354Z - 231600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Severe potential, at least in an isolated sense, should
gradually increase through mid/late morning, initially across
southeast LA and far southern MS. While a Watch issuance is not
imminent, observational/convective trends will continue to be
monitored, and a Watch could become more probable later this
morning.

DISCUSSION...Bands of increasing showers and some thunderstorms
(mostly offshore at this time) exists across the region coincident
with a warm/moist conveyor ahead of a cold front. The region will be increasingly influenced by an upstream upper-level trough, while
richer moisture (some middle 60s F surface dewpoints) continues to
develop northward/inland particularly across southeast LA. Although
the 12Z observed sounding from LIX/New Orleans featured a cool
stable near-surface layer, temperatures/dewpoints have already risen
since, and sounding modifications/forecast soundings imply that
convection could become more rooted in the boundary layer as
temperatures climb through the upper 60s F and reach 70F in some
cases.

Accordingly, the aforementioned bands of showers should continue to
deepen through the morning, with the possibility of increasing
intensity and organization by late morning. Very strong low-level
shear will support the possibility of a few supercells ahead of what
should eventually be an organized line of convection. Overall,
damaging winds along with the potential for a tornado or two will be
the primary concerns, with hail magnitudes expected to be limited by
convective mode and observed thin/weak overall buoyancy.

..Guyer.. 01/23/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 29119129 30619073 31458956 31558863 30938791 30318793
29098894 29119129



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