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ACUS11 KWNS 021413
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021412
ILZ000-MOZ000-021615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0623
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0912 AM CDT Sat Jun 02 2018

Areas affected...southern and eastern Missouri into parts of
southwest Illinois

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 149...

Valid 021412Z - 021615Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 149
continues.

SUMMARY...Limited severe risk persists across parts of central and
southern Missouri within WW 149. Limited risk for hail/wind also
appears evident across eastern Missouri and into southwest Illinois,
though new for a new/downstream watch appears low at this time.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a small cluster of stronger
convection crossing the Hickory/Polk county vicinity of southwest
Missouri, near the advancing cold front. With ample instability
ahead of this cluster, some risk for a locally damaging wind gust
and/or marginal hail persists.

Farther east, a semi-organized band of storms is moving
east-southeast across eastern Missouri, roughly along a warm frontal
zone that extends east-southeast into southern Illinois. With an
axis of moist air along the boundary, and some early heating that
has begun to boost CAPE values, this cluster of storms may remain semi-organized, and persist for the next few hours. Deep-layer
shear remains relatively weak -- which should limit severe risk to
some degree, and thus at this time a WW does not appear to be
required. However, we will continue to monitor destabilization
along the warm front and associated convective trends this morning.

..Goss.. 06/02/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON 38379356 38789212 39409143 39079056 38358866 37678870
37338957 37769156 37439306 36939440 38379356



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