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ACUS11 KWNS 201802
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201801
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-202200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0042
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 PM CST Sun Jan 20 2019

Areas affected...New England

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation

Valid 201801Z - 202200Z

SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow is falling across much of the
northeast this morning. This is expected to continue through the
afternoon with areas currently seeing freezing rain/sleet and rain,
eventually changing to snow.

DISCUSSION...A 988mb surface low is currently being analyzed near
Providence, RI at 17Z. This low will continue to deepen as it moves
northeast back over the Atlantic Ocean later this afternoon. Cold
air is working in rapidly west of this low pressure center which is
changing mixed precipitation back to snow from west to east. Winds
between 1 and 2 km have switched from south-southeasterly to west
northwesterly in the last 2 hours on the KENX VWP indicating this
surge of arctic air is deepening. In addition, KENX WSR-88D
correlation coefficient data shows the transition line moving
rapidly east across Berkshire county in western Massachusetts.
However, in these areas, precipitation will also be coming to an end
soon due to dry air intrusion and limited deformation band
precipitation. Further north into Vermont and New Hampshire and
Maine, ongoing moderate to heavy snow is expected to continue with
snowfall rates in excess of 1 inch per hour across much of this
area. The exception will be in eastern Maine where warm air aloft
may build in later this afternoon and switch the snow to sleet or
freezing rain for a period. Sleet seems like the more likely
precipitation type considering the depth and magnitude of the cold
air below this warm nose, but there have been upstream observations
in the mid to upper teens reporting freezing rain, so freezing rain
cannot be ruled out.

Strengthening northwest winds will likely lead to blowing and
drifting snow in much of the discussion area which will continue
impacts through the afternoon and evening, even after precipitation
comes to an end. These gusty winds may also exacerbate impacts in
areas which saw significant ice accretion on trees and powerlines.

..Bentley.. 01/20/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

LAT...LON 44247182 44847146 45397106 45827055 46147038 46677011
47176963 47556925 47486830 47056770 46526766 45926758
45696741 45406722 45006691 44746691 44436751 44176818
43936877 43726921 43627007 43237045 42957055 42647059
42347076 42177111 42047153 42077222 42267284 42637293
43877212 44247182



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