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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0970

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, July 01, 2018 02:10:52
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 010210
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 010210
    MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-010415-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0970
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0910 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

    Areas affected...Northern New York...northern and central
    Vermont...northern and central New Hampshire,

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 010210Z - 010415Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated storms may move across the discussion area over
    the next few hours. Storms that can mature may produce isolated,
    marginally severe hail/wind gusts.

    DISCUSSION...Buoyancy is decreasing across northern New England and
    the boundary layer is beginning to stabilize. Nonetheless, large
    scale ascent is glancing the area and sparse convection has
    initiated within the last hour. Deep-layer and low-level
    speed/directional shear highly favor updraft organization for any
    storms that may sustain themselves in the next few hours.

    Given the waning instability and increasing inhibition, marginally
    severe hail/damaging winds will likely be the primary threats with
    these storms. Given low confidence in greater storm coverage, a WW
    issuance may not be needed at this time, though convective trends
    will continue to be monitored.

    ..Squitieri/Gleason/Thompson.. 07/01/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...

    LAT...LON 44397578 44737539 44947487 44967408 44987284 45007184
    44737104 44367090 43917125 43457186 43277243 43687396
    44057497 44397578



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