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ACUS11 KWNS 201126
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201126
NCZ000-201330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0040
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0526 AM CST Sun Jan 20 2019

Areas affected...coastal North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 201126Z - 201330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Locally damaging winds could occur early this morning
across coastal NC and the Outer Banks vicinity.

DISCUSSION...A NNE/SSW-oriented convective line has shown modest
signs of increased updraft depth recently including an increase in
cloud-ground lightning as far north as the middle part of the NC
coast as of 6AM EST/11Z. Aided by appreciable cyclogenesis/forcing
for ascent, this wavy/somewhat broken convective line may continue
to exhibit an increase in convective organization and intensity, at
least to some degree, particularly along the immediate NC
coast/Outer Banks before it exits the coast by around 9-10AM EST.

While a brief tornado cannot be conclusively ruled out coincident
with very strong low-level shear, the potential for locally damaging
winds would likely be the primary concern given the marginal nature
of boundary layer moisture (near 60 F dewpoints) and an observed
tendency for near-surface winds to veer more southwesterly. The
overall perceived marginality of the severe risk, along with a
relatively small spatiotemporal window for such a threat, are
expected to preclude a Watch issuance.

..Guyer.. 01/20/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...

LAT...LON 34597692 35367661 36087581 35727515 34897544 34487617
34597692



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