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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0236

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, April 13, 2018 16:04:28
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    ACUS11 KWNS 131604
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 131604
    OKZ000-TXZ000-131700-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0236
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1104 AM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

    Areas affected...north central Texas through southeast OK

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 131604Z - 131700Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms developing late this morning might pose a risk for
    mainly hail through mid day. Though a watch is possible, plans are
    to hold off on a watch until the more substantial severe threat
    evolves during the afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Morning radar trends indicated a few elevated storms
    have shown transient reflectivity spikes over southeast OK and north
    central TX. However, morning soundings with a strong inversion
    present near 800 mb and fast storm motions suggest these storms are
    still elevated above the strong cap with updrafts probably rooted
    near 700 mb. Continued moistening of the layer near 700 mb along
    with steep lapse rates may result in some increase in MUCAPE and
    potential updraft strength during the next hour or two. Given very
    steep mid-level lapse rates with 8.9 C/km in the 700-500 mb layer,
    some storms might become capable of producing hail in the short
    term.

    With time, the initial leading band of deep ascent currently moving
    through eastern ok and north central to northeast TX will gradually
    erode the capping inversion, resulting in surface based storms with
    greater severe potential. But this scenario will be addressed in a
    separate meso discussion.

    ..Dial/Hart.. 04/13/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 35119558 33709546 32059589 31769677 32409764 34779712
    35399628 35119558



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, March 25, 2019 02:02:26
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 250102
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 250101
    INZ000-ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-250300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0236
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0801 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

    Areas affected...Eastern/southern Missouri and southern Illinois

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 32...

    Valid 250101Z - 250300Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 32
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across portions of
    eastern/southern Missouri and southern Illinois with large hail as
    the primary threat.

    DISCUSSION...Storms are continuing to move eastward across WW32,
    although the peak severe threat appears to have been crested. The
    initial line of northeast-southwest oriented storms have shown
    downward convective trends in recent radar scans from KLSX and KPAH,
    and that is expected to continue. Buoyancy/instability are limited
    east of WW32, but a strong/severe storm remains possible just east
    of the watch. The line of storms approaching and just north of St.
    Louis will also weaken as it moves into more rain-cooled air and
    loses insolation. Extending the watch spatially/temporally is not
    expected as the severe threat should continue to diminish as storms
    move east and by 03z when the watch expires.

    ..Nauslar/Thompson.. 03/25/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

    LAT...LON 36449261 36529323 36759291 36999234 37249189 37519147
    37759114 38029102 38259112 38509115 38769095 38999082
    39169075 39289053 39248993 38928892 38678825 38448789
    38238793 37778824 37408861 37098897 36878930 36678964
    36539000 36489022 36449261



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