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ACUS11 KWNS 191508
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191508
ALZ000-MSZ000-191715-

Mesoscale Discussion 0027
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0908 AM CST Sat Jan 19 2019

Areas affected...southeast Mississippi and southwest through central
Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 191508Z - 191715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind and isolated tornadoes is
expected to develop eastward through southwest and central Alabama
this morning into the afternoon. Trends are being monitored for a
possible WW east of WW 0001.

DISCUSSION...As of mid morning a broken band of thunderstorms
extends from extreme east central MS southwest into southeast LA. A
few organized structures including bowing segments and embedded mini
supercells persist within the line. Surface low will continue east
through the TN Valley this afternoon with associated downstream
strong low-level jet maintaining modest theta-e advection with low
60s dewpoints contributing to around 500 J/kg MLCAPE. The band of
convection will likely persist as it advances east within this zone
of ascent and weak destabilization. VWP data show very impressive
wind profiles with 60+ kt 0-6 km shear and large hodographs along
the low-level jet corridor. This high shear/low cape environment
will likely continue to support occasional embedded organized
structures next several hours with damaging wind and isolated
tornadoes the main threat.

..Dial/Thompson.. 01/19/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON 30898921 32018861 32788829 33288788 33378722 33098671
32378682 31648721 31078776 30758850 30898921



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