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ACUS11 KWNS 190725
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190724
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-190930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0025
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 AM CST Sat Jan 19 2019

Areas affected...Parts of southwest to northeast LA and
southwest/west-central MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 190724Z - 190930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Locally strong/damaging winds and/or a tornado are
possible with storms developing across central into northeast
Louisiana, with storms tracking northeast toward southwest and
west-central Mississippi overnight. Coverage of these severe
threats may preclude the issuance of a watch, though convective
trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Trends in radar and satellite imagery, and lightning
data showed an increase in storm development/organization and
intensity across central LA during the early overnight (primarily
across Grant and Winn Parishes at this time). This activity appears
to be located in vicinity of a pre-frontal trough, as a heights fall
with the approach of an amplifying shortwave trough across the
southern Plains. Poleward return flow of low-level moisture will
further moisten a boundary layer that could support surface-based
storms through the overnight to early morning. Recent RAP soundings
for this region suggest a near-surface stable layer that could
result in weak parcel ascent, and suggest that storms may be
slightly elevated. Strong vertical wind profiles with low-level
hodograph curvature per area VADs indicate strong deep-layer and
low-level shear for storm organization, including rotating updrafts
as have been observed in central LA. Given uncertainties in the
near-surface destabilization trends, watch issuance is not expected
at this time, though this area will be monitored for any substantial
increases in moistening and/or storm intensification.

..Peters/Guyer.. 01/19/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 30879357 31799298 32639173 32969104 32879063 32379041
31499101 30719211 30379302 30459361 30879357



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