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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0965

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 30, 2018 23:59:21
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 302359
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 302358
    TXZ000-010200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0965
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0658 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

    Areas affected...Texas Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 302358Z - 010200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Very isolated severe threat possible over the next few
    hours. Marginally severe hail and gusty winds would be the primary
    threats. Sparse and marginal nature of potential severe threat
    suggests a WW issuance is not likely at this time.

    DISCUSSION...An unstable airmass (with up to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE) and a
    moderately sheared environment (30+ knots effective bulk shear and
    100-150 m2/s2 0-3km SRH) is present across the discussion area. So
    far, storms have been slow to initiate across the area, with large
    scale ascent associated with a 500mb vort-max remaining to the north
    of the region. Still, a well-mixed boundary layer is in place and a
    LLJ will be intensifying over the area shortly. As such, a slight
    uptick in convection is possible (also noted by recent CAM
    guidance). Given the modest ambient environment, any storms that
    form may produce mainly isolated, marginally severe hail/wind gusts.
    A WW issuance is not anticipated at this time.

    ..Squitieri/Gleason/Thompson.. 06/30/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...

    LAT...LON 33210161 33320234 34270301 35000301 35740303 36120287
    36320278 36460243 36460191 36470138 36370077 36300046
    35360010 34560013 33790024 33270037 33210161



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