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ACUS11 KWNS 302309
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302309
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-010045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0963
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0609 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

Areas affected...Portions of Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 245...247...250...

Valid 302309Z - 010045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 245, 247,
250 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat will continue to transition towards
primarily damaging winds across Watch 247, as well as Watches 245
and 250, this evening.

DISCUSSION...Two distinct regimes of severe convection are ongoing
across Watch 247 early this evening -- one with a linear system
departing the Nebraska Panhandle and another with supercell clusters
over southern Nebraska. The linear system is accelerating east into
an area of modest surface-based buoyancy and some inhibition, as
suggested by a 19Z LBF sounding. However, large-scale ascent
associated with a sharp shortwave trough, a building cold pool
behind the line, and favorable storm-relative flow may maintain the
line as it pushes east. This evolution would favor a corridor of
damaging winds over central Nebraska.

Farther east, warm advection focused near the composite
front/outflow is supporting a mixture of supercells and multicells.
Increasing storm coverage and merging cold pools will likely favor
an increasing wind threat here as well, possibly in the form of a
small-scale convective system that accelerates east towards the
Missouri River. Prior to this evolution, some tornado/hail threat
will continue with any discrete cells, given favorable directional
shear.

..Picca.. 06/30/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...BOU...

LAT...LON 42170251 41899933 41349652 41059518 40249442 39839495
39909683 40149949 41020239 42170251



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