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ACUS11 KWNS 302240
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302240
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-010045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0962
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0540 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

Areas affected...Northeast into east-central Colorado...Nebraska Panhandle...far northwest Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 246...

Valid 302240Z - 010045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 246
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated severe threat continues across Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 0246, with a WW issuance possible farther to the
southeast. Large hail and isolated damaging wind gusts will be the
main threats.

DISCUSSION...Isolated storms are ongoing from the Nebraska Panhandle
to central Colorado, just east of the Rocky Mountains. As a 500 mb
vort-max across south central Wyoming continues to move eastward,
large scale lift may assist in initiating additional storms across
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 0246 and perhaps points east (as indicated
by recent CAM guidance).

While buoyancy is rather modest immediately along the Colorado
Front-range, 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (driven by 7.5+ C/km mid-level
lapse rates and 60+ F dewpoints) and 50+ knot effective bulk shear
is present from far northeast Colorado into southwest Nebraska and
northwest Kansas. This suggests favorable conditions for organized
updrafts capable of at least isolated large hail and damaging wind
gusts are in place. Multiple surface boundaries are present just to
the southeast of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 0246 and storms may
initiate along these boundaries in the next few hours. As such,
convective trends will be monitored for potential eastward issuance
of a new WW.

..Squitieri/Gleason/Thompson.. 06/30/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 38690472 38940503 39620498 40410487 40980457 41780392
42220347 42320275 41790235 41320229 40850233 40500222
40010174 39980163 39870084 39630048 39170072 39120130
39020205 38890275 38620388 38690472



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