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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0961

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 30, 2018 22:13:22
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 302213
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 302212
    TXZ000-302345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0961
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0512 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of the Texas Big Country and vicinity

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 302212Z - 302345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms
    this evening. The overall organization of the threat should be
    limited, though, and a watch is not expected at this time.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite depicts an MCV lifting northeast
    across the Edwards Plateau this afternoon, with some increase in
    convection noted in its vicinity. Additionally, to its
    east/northeast, a maturing cumulus field suggests convection will
    further increase in coverage into the early evening. SJT VWP and
    forecast soundings indicate little deep-layer shear. However,
    adequate buoyancy (MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg) overlying a
    well-mixed/hot boundary layer will promote efficient evaporation in
    heavy precipitation cores. In turn, thunderstorm clusters may
    produce a few areas of damaging downburst winds through mid evening.
    A watch is not currently anticipated, however, owing to a lack of
    organization from weak tropospheric winds.

    ..Picca/Thompson.. 06/30/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

    LAT...LON 33119938 31579983 30360082 30430171 31010248 33560152
    33910061 33659963 33119938



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