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ACUS11 KWNS 302141
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302140
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-302315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0960
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0440 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

Areas affected...Portions of the Missouri Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 302140Z - 302315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Developing storms will pose a risk of damaging winds and
large hail. A watch may be needed if convective trends warrant.

DISCUSSION...A very evident MCV is lifting north/northeast towards
the Kansas/Nebraska border this afternoon. Focused ascent ahead of
and on the eastern flank of this circulation is assisting new
convective development from the MCV to the KC Metro late this
afternoon. Regional VWP data are not sampling much directional
shear, but strong buoyancy combined with enhanced southwesterly flow
aloft (around 35-45 kt at 6 km) will likely support damaging
downburst winds and isolated large hail with cluster/multicellular
modes. Convective coverage/organization may warrant new watch
issuance.

..Picca/Thompson.. 06/30/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 40569551 40969400 40699377 40189380 39159411 38419500
38129591 38199663 38729702 39639735 40029721 40569551



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