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ACUS11 KWNS 302123
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302123
MIZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-302230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0959
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0423 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

Areas affected...Portions of Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of
Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 302123Z - 302230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A new Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued
shortly to cover an increasing threat for damaging winds and
isolated large hail across the region.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite depict deepening convection from
parts of northern/central Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula of
Michigan. Additionally, a maturing convective system is slowly
developing eastward across Watch 245. With rich boundary-layer
moisture (e.g., surface dew points in the 70s) and steep mid-level
lapse rates in place, strong MLCAPE (on the order of 3000-4000 J/kg)
and modest deep-layer shear will support further cluster/multicell
modes capable of damaging downburst winds and perhaps a few severe
hail reports. To cover the threat, a watch will likely be issued
shortly.

..Picca/Thompson.. 06/30/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON 43049133 46219077 47158925 47368809 46818718 45828711
43588796 42778963 42749095 43049133



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