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ACUS11 KWNS 302107
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302107
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-302230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0958
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0407 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

Areas affected...Northern New York...Vermont...and New
Hampshire...and Western Maine.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 302107Z - 302230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...One or more rounds of severe weather expected this
evening. Damaging winds will be the primary threat, however, large
hail is also possible.

DISCUSSION...Considerable uncertainty remains as to the timing of
the greatest threat from storms this evening. A storm has now formed
east of Ottawa where temperatures have risen into the upper 80s with
dewpoints in the low 70s. The airmass ahead of these storms
continues to destabilize this afternoon with the dewpoint in
Burlington, Vermont rising from 62F to 68F in the last few hours.
Continued advection of this moist low-level airmass will destabilize
areas in northern New Hampshire and western Maine over the next few
hours. Given the high theta-e airmass in the area combined with
effective shear of 35 to 40 knots per the latest RAP mesoanalysis,
expect any strong storms which develop to continue eastward. The
greatest uncertainty involves the evolution of this activity. While
most model guidance has been consistent with a bowing segment across
this area later this evening, there have been varying solutions
regarding the the intensity of earlier convection. If the current
storm east of Ottawa strengthens or if additional development grows southeastward, a watch may be needed soon, however the primary
concern remains with the threat of a bowing segment later this
evening evolving from expected development in eastern Ontario.

..Bentley/Thompson.. 06/30/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...

LAT...LON 44647568 44357459 44197273 44277147 44497069 44906972
45546942 45966983 46137027 45957044 45757046 45657068
45467080 45357104 45337135 45097157 45057211 45067484
44647568



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