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ACUS11 KWNS 302041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302040
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-302245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0957
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

Areas affected...Eastern Nebraska...Iowa...Southeast
Minnesota...Western Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 245...

Valid 302040Z - 302245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 245
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to increase across WW 245 over
the next couple of hours. Large hail, wind damage and perhaps a
tornado or two may occur with the more intense cells.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis continues to show a cold
front moving through the southeast Minnesota and northern Iowa. The
RAP is analyzing a sharp gradient of instability along the front
with MLCAPE values to the southeast of the front estimated to be in
the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. The instability is being enhanced by a
very moist boundary layer with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper
70s F. This combined with 0-6 km shear in the 45 to 50 kt range
evident on the Omaha WSR-88D VWP will support severe storms. Cells
that remain discrete may form into supercells and be associated with
isolated large hail. The storms that organize into short line
segments may have wind damage as the favored threat. As a low-level
jet increases across the mid Missouri Valley late this afternoon
into early evening, an isolated tornado threat will also be possible
with the more dominant supercells. The severe threat is expected to
gradually increase in coverage as more thunderstorms initiate along
the front over the next few hours.

..Broyles/Hart.. 06/30/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...OAX...

LAT...LON 42899460 42129520 41879592 41729659 41379706 40859721
40469704 40349688 40459647 40909520 42089361 42879224
43259173 44159078 44929062 45259058 45369133 45359190
45189232 44749296 44209339 43509398 42899460



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