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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0955

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 30, 2018 20:12:19
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 302012
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 302011
    NEZ000-KSZ000-302145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0955
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0311 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

    Areas affected...Southern and Central Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

    Valid 302011Z - 302145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A severe threat appears likely to continue to develop
    across parts of south and central Nebraska over the next couple of
    hours. Large hail and isolated wind damage will be possible. WW
    issuance will likely be issued for parts of southern and central
    Nebraska.

    DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1004 mb low over
    southwest Kansas with a front extending northeastward from the low
    across southeastern Nebraska into western Iowa. Strong thunderstorms
    have initiated over the last hour to the north of the front across
    southern Nebraska. The airmass north of the front is moderately
    unstable with MLCAPE values estimated by the RAP in the 1500 to 3000
    J/kg range. In addition, the Hastings WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear
    values in the 45 to 50 kt range suggesting that organized convection
    will be likely. The wind profile should continue to support
    supercells and large hail will be possible with the stronger
    updrafts. Wind damage may also occur with supercells and short line
    segments. An isolated tornado threat can also not be ruled out as
    well mainly with cells that can remain discrete.

    ..Broyles/Hart.. 06/30/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

    LAT...LON 42029830 41549774 40799776 40119806 39979915 39980052
    40060151 40880189 41360172 41550158 41770109 41939994
    42029830



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