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ACUS11 KWNS 131344
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131344
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-131615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0235
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0844 AM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Areas affected...Far Southeast South Dakota...Southern
Minnesota...Southern Wisconsin...Northern Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 131344Z - 131615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal severe threat will continue from far southeast
South Dakota eastward to southern Wisconsin this morning. Isolated
large hail will be the primary threat. The potential for hail should
remain too marginal to warrant watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave ridge over
the northern Plains. A perturbation appears to be located just
downstream of the ridge extending from eastern South Dakota eastward
into the upper Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm activity is ongoing
near the axis of the mid-level wave where lift is likely maximized.
Surface temperatures along this corridor are in the mid to upper 30s
but elevated instability exists in the mid-levels. The Omaha 12Z
sounding shows evidence of the instability with MUCAPE near 1900
J/kg. The soundings also shows effective shear of 50 kt. Although
instability drops off with northward extent, there should still be
enough instability coupled with moderate effective shear across the
MCD area for a hail threat. Large hail will be possible with the
strongest of the elevated rotating storms. However, the threat
should remain isolated and is not expected to meet the coverage
criteria necessary for watch issuance.

..Broyles/Hart.. 04/13/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON 43189544 43099650 43249696 43719718 44169674 44459585
44569397 44389122 43548847 42628840 42538940 43179231
43299449 43189544



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ACUS11 KWNS 242336
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242336
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-250130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0235
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

Areas affected...northeast Texas into western Arkansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 33...

Valid 242336Z - 250130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 33
continues.

SUMMARY...Storms will continue to increase in coverage and intensity
this evening, with large hail likely.

DISCUSSION...Storms have gradually increased in coverage ahead of a
developing cold front and on the nose of a low-level lapse rate
plume. Peak heating and low 60s F dewpoints have led to around
1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, with minimal CIN.

Satellite imagery and model output show a low-amplitude shortwave
trough now approaching the region, and this will likely increase
overall lift as southwesterly low-level winds maintain a relatively
unstable air mass ahead of the front. While low-level winds will not
be strong, increasing west-northwesterly mid to upper level winds
will result in long hodographs favorable for cellular activity
including a few supercells producing large hail. With time, storms
may eventually merge into a broken line or semi-linear structures as
they shift southeast.

..Jewell.. 03/24/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 32269642 32379740 32679757 33129706 33749637 34849511
35379448 35379348 35129286 34589268 33929300 32919399
32489458 32299507 32239569 32249619 32269642



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