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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0016

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, January 12, 2019 01:16:17
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    ACUS11 KWNS 120016
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 120015
    ILZ000-MOZ000-120415-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0016
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0615 PM CST Fri Jan 11 2019

    Areas affected...east-central MO into southwest IL

    Concerning...Heavy snow

    Valid 120015Z - 120415Z

    SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow will continue to shift east across east-central MO and southwest IL. The greatest snowfall rates, near
    1 inch per hour, will continue for a few more hours this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Moderate to heavy snow has been falling into
    I-44/I-70/I-55 corridor near St. Louis the past few hours. Local
    storm reports from the St. Louis NWS office indicate 3-6 inches of
    snow has already fallen across much of east-central MO into
    west-central IL. Latest forecast guidance coupled with radar and
    satellite trends suggest moderate to heavy snow will continue and
    shift east across the region through about 02-03z. The timing of
    the end of heavier snowfall is based on the track of the back edge
    of the current snow band across east-central MO.

    Across central MO, an area of drier air has been noted in water
    vapor imagery and in lower reflectivity on radar. This is associated
    with weaker forcing for ascent ahead of the main mid/upper level
    trough over the central/southern Plains currently, and perhaps even
    some weak midlevel subsidence as the ridge axis shifts eastward from
    the Ozarks toward the MS River. As the trough continues to eject
    eastward, another burst of moderate to heavy snow is possible
    overnight (after 06z).

    ..Leitman.. 01/12/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

    LAT...LON 39289075 39318978 39158923 38848892 38608879 38218886
    37958919 37849008 37879100 38109174 38569196 38899179
    39139118 39289075



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