• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0954

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 30, 2018 19:03:52
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    ACUS11 KWNS 301903
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 301903
    NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-302030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0954
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0203 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

    Areas affected...Northeast Kansas...Southeast Wyoming...and Western
    Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

    Valid 301903Z - 302030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms will gradually increase in intensity through the
    afternoon. Large hail will be the primary threat initially with a
    greater wind damage threat through time.

    DISCUSSION...Storms have started to form on the front range of the
    Rockies this afternoon. While instability has been somewhat limited
    across most of southeast Wyoming and northern Colorado due to
    morning cloud cover, instability is sufficient (500 to 1000 J/kg
    MUCAPE) for strong updrafts. Unseasonably strong mid-level flow (50
    to 60 knots per CYS VWP) combined with low-level easterly flow,
    provides a very favorable shear environment for organized storms.
    Initially, storms may struggle to intensify due to limited
    instability, but continued cloud breaks and low-level moist upslope
    flow will aid in destabilization and lead to an increasing severe
    weather threat through the afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates
    per DNR 12Z sounding will support large hail as the primary threat
    initially. The threat is expected to evolve into a greater wind
    threat through time as storm coverage increases and storms are
    expected to congeal into a linear MCS.

    ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/30/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 41030585 41920544 42400486 42920414 42940329 42940182
    41690164 40430173 39900327 39680402 39750477 40070526
    40390566 41030585



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 30, 2018 19:12:50
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1530385975-38885-3737
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    ACUS11 KWNS 301912
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 301912 COR
    NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-302030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0954
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0212 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

    Areas affected...Northeast Colorado...Southeast Wyoming...and
    Western Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

    Valid 301912Z - 302030Z

    CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC AREA

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms will gradually increase in intensity through the
    afternoon. Large hail will be the primary threat initially with a
    greater wind damage threat through time.

    DISCUSSION...Storms have started to form on the front range of the
    Rockies this afternoon. While instability has been somewhat limited
    across most of southeast Wyoming and northern Colorado due to
    morning cloud cover, instability is sufficient (500 to 1000 J/kg
    MUCAPE) for strong updrafts. Unseasonably strong mid-level flow (50
    to 60 knots per CYS VWP) combined with low-level easterly flow,
    provides a very favorable shear environment for organized storms.
    Initially, storms may struggle to intensify due to limited
    instability, but continued cloud breaks and low-level moist upslope
    flow will aid in destabilization and lead to an increasing severe
    weather threat through the afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates
    per DNR 12Z sounding will support large hail as the primary threat
    initially. The threat is expected to evolve into a greater wind
    threat through time as storm coverage increases and storms are
    expected to congeal into a linear MCS.

    ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/30/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 41030585 41920544 42400486 42920414 42940329 42940182
    41690164 40430173 39900327 39680402 39750477 40070526
    40390566 41030585



    ------------=_1530385975-38885-3737
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    Content-Disposition: inline
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1530385975-38885-3737--

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    * Origin: Capitol City Online - capitolcityonline.net (1:2320/105)