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ACUS11 KWNS 301912
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301912 COR
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-302030-
Mesoscale Discussion 0954
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018
Areas affected...Northeast Colorado...Southeast Wyoming...and
Western Nebraska
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 301912Z - 302030Z
CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC AREA
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Storms will gradually increase in intensity through the
afternoon. Large hail will be the primary threat initially with a
greater wind damage threat through time.
DISCUSSION...Storms have started to form on the front range of the
Rockies this afternoon. While instability has been somewhat limited
across most of southeast Wyoming and northern Colorado due to
morning cloud cover, instability is sufficient (500 to 1000 J/kg
MUCAPE) for strong updrafts. Unseasonably strong mid-level flow (50
to 60 knots per CYS VWP) combined with low-level easterly flow,
provides a very favorable shear environment for organized storms.
Initially, storms may struggle to intensify due to limited
instability, but continued cloud breaks and low-level moist upslope
flow will aid in destabilization and lead to an increasing severe
weather threat through the afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates
per DNR 12Z sounding will support large hail as the primary threat
initially. The threat is expected to evolve into a greater wind
threat through time as storm coverage increases and storms are
expected to congeal into a linear MCS.
..Bentley/Hart.. 06/30/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 41030585 41920544 42400486 42920414 42940329 42940182
41690164 40430173 39900327 39680402 39750477 40070526
40390566 41030585
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