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ACUS11 KWNS 301743
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301743
OKZ000-TXZ000-301915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0953
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

Areas affected...Northern Texas into southwest Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 301743Z - 301915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A developing cluster of storms in northern Oklahoma will
likely strengthen this afternoon as it moves into Oklahoma. These
storms may produce some large hail and damaging winds as the storms
move northeast this afternoon and into the evening.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has started to develop in northern
Texas ahead of a weak MCV. As the boundary layer destabilizes
further across Oklahoma this afternoon, these storms will likely
continue to strengthen. Deep-layer shear is weak across much of the
Southern Plains, however the VWP from FDR and DYX is sampling an
area of enhanced mid-level flow (35 to 40 knots around 5 km)
associated with this MCV. Therefore, this combination of strong to
very strong instability across Oklahoma combined with the locally
enhanced shear associated with the MCV will provide an environment
supportive of one or more multicell clusters. The primary threat
from these storms will be large hail and damaging winds. No watch is
expected ahead of the current convection, however a watch may be
needed later this afternoon if this convection grows upscale and
becomes a more widespread threat.

..Bentley/Hart.. 06/30/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 34469976 34819977 35419967 35939944 36339901 36479850
36499797 36409715 35739671 34419691 33649738 33029792
32729843 32869892 33119934 33609972 34469976



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