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ACUS11 KWNS 071542
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071541
MIZ000-072045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0011
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0941 AM CST Mon Jan 07 2019

Areas affected...Portions of Upper-Michigan

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 071541Z - 072045Z

SUMMARY...Snowfall rates of an inch/hour possible across portions of
the Upper-Peninsula of Michigan. The eastern half of the discussion
area is likely to see higher accumulations. Snowfall will likely be
maximized between 18-20Z with steady decrease thereafter.

DISCUSSION...Current surface observations show that temperatures in
eastern Upper-Michigan are in the upper-20s with temperatures in the
low-30s farther west. As an upstream shortwave trough, now in
central Iowa, progresses northeast, mid-level ascent with aid from
850 mb warm advection will continue to increase across the area
where a deep, saturated profile within the DGZ exists per the 12Z
APX sounding. With Sault Ste Marie already reporting heavy snow,
areal extent of 1 inch/hour snowfall rates should increase over the
next few hours. In addition, marginal blizzard conditions with
reduced visibilities are also possible with KCIU reporting gusts of
35-40+ kts over the last hour. RAP forecast sounding show the
strongest vertical velocities occurring between 18-20Z. Thereafter,
snowfall rates should decrease as subsidence in the wake of the
trough occurs. The eastern Upper-Peninsula will likely see the
greatest totals given that temperatures there should remain below
freezing for the duration of the event. Farther west, temperatures
are already marginal and weak low-level warm advection may temper accumulations.

..Wendt.. 01/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...

LAT...LON 46188776 46528704 46748585 46588464 46348393 46108371
45968369 45888402 45828550 45678681 45658744 45878787
46188776



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